Beyond the Ballot: Nigeria’s Role in a Changing World

1:30:44

In February, Africa’s largest economy and most populous country elected a new president. Nigeria’s Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) declared Bola Tinubu as the winner, even as election results are currently being challenged. INEC stands accused of mismanaging the polls, leaving the country with a president of dubious legitimacy at a time when Nigeria desperately needs to rally toward a new sense of national purpose.   

There are heavy headwinds ahead for the country and its new leadership. Existing economic difficulties have worsened since Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his war of aggression in Ukraine. Energy prices have gone up and food insecurity has deepened. Last December, the World Bank warned that Nigeria’s debt service cost-to-revenue ratio could hit 160 percent by 2027. Will President Tinubu be able to set out the kind of effective development agenda Nigeria needs to create a new political ethos, one that will make possible a more positive and productive period ahead?   

This election will influence politics far beyond Nigeria’s borders, and Europe needs the leadership of Africa’s largest democracy. Africa is rapidly becoming the stage of the largest demographic changes in the world, and Nigeria is the center of the action. As Europe seeks to reduce its dependence on Russian energy, a strategic relationship with Nigeria—Africa’s largest oil producer—is of critical importance for immediate German, and European, energy needs. But Nigeria’s success, and a return to the continental leadership role it once played, is also crucial for a region plagued by climate breakdown, armed conflict, food insecurity, and extreme poverty—and once again experimenting with military rule.