Oppression and Strife in Central Asia

Along with all the other Central Asian countries, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan continue to struggle with severe economic and social problems that have plagued them since the dissolution of the Soviet Union more than a decade ago. The two countries' political systems are similar as well; both nations are governed by powerful presidents who have shown limited tolerance for dissent. Two separate OSI forums, one on February 11, 2003, and the other on February 12, 2003, focused on recent high-profile developments in the human rights and political situations in Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan, respectively.

Kazakhstan

In a forum on February 11, 2003, Yevgeny Zhovtis, a Kazakhstani human rights activist and lawyer, discussed the recent rape conviction of a prominent opposition journalist, Sergei Duvanov. Zhovtis argued that Duvanov was framed and that the case was politically motivated as part of an effort to remove threats to the power of Kazakhstani President Nursultan Nazarbayev. Characterizing his country's judicial system as "worse than in Soviet times," Zhovtis outlined instances of blatant procedural violations during the investigation.

Turkmenistan

Political oppression is much more direct in Turkmenistan, where a dictator, President Saparmurat Niyazov, runs the country through the use and threat of terror. Niyazov's increasingly erratic behavior includes the establishment of a cult of personality and the brutal suppression of opposition voices. However, according to Filip Noubel, a senior analyst with the International Crisis Group (ICG), there are cracks in Niyazov's armor indicating that regime change may occur sooner rather than later.

In a forum at OSI's New York City office on February 12, 2003, Noubel said that the level and extent of internal opposition to Niyazov's policies is much greater than commonly believed outside of Turkmenistan. He argued that recent military purges and an assassination attempt on the president are signs that Niyazov may be losing control.