Bosnia Elections and Hillary Clinton's Visit

Once again general elections in Bosnia-Herzegovina, held on October 3, could not provide a solution to the deep ethnic divide in the country. The vote resulted in Muslim and Croat Bosnians electing more moderate representatives with a national outlook while Bosnian Serbs elected leaders clamoring for secession.

Election winners immediately expressed completely opposite views and dismissed the possibility of any coalition at the state level. Heated exchanges among political leaders have created a post-election atmosphere that is as hostile as it was pre-election.

In such an atmosphere, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton paid a visit to Bosnia. Opinions differ as to the real intentions for her trip. Optimists see the visit as an effort to stress that the country still remains important to the United States. Pessimists claim it is just a “collateral visit” on the way to the main destination—Serbia.

Cynics, though, simply point out the new U.S. embassy building in Sarajevo, inaugurated by Secretary Clinton, which was in fact the main purpose of her visit.

Whatever the real agenda, the outcome is what counts. Clinton did not say anything that was not said before by other U.S. officials—the United States is opposing any secession, Bosnia should work hard on EU reforms, and ethnic communities should overcome their differences. Her overall performance was less impressive than Joseph Biden’s a few years ago but, surprisingly, the tensions somehow went down immediately after the visit. All political leaders were there, smiling and shaking hands with each other.

Some statements have already been smoothed over—like one about the formation of the third/Croat entity in Bosnia as the only way to protect rights of this ethnic community. Even the hardliner Milorad Dodik, prime minister of the Republic of Srpska, seems to give up any further talks on secession.

Again, it could be just coincidence. The latest reports from the Election Commission, which is very close to finishing counting the votes, indicate that the general trend is not as bad as it looked the day after election. Among the most important one is that Dodik’s party, the Alliance of Independent Social Democrats, did not win with as convincing a majority as it did four years ago, while the significant number of votes for non-Bosniac candidates in the Bosniac-majority regions are encouraging as a sign of giving up ethnic preference in voting.

Whatever caused the sudden relaxation—Hillary Clinton’s visit, final results, or most probably both—it provides the space for more constructive reflection on election results and future coalitions. In any case, U.S. engagement in Bosnia remains important. Indicative in that sense is the two-day long, post-election visit of the EU Commissioner for Enlargement Štefan Füle that went almost unnoticed.

Despite the fact that EU integration is Bosnia’s only option, Washington is still seen as the symbol of power here.